Shock turns to hope as traders bet SA can dodge downgrade
Just minutes into his maiden budget speech and Finance Minister Tito Mboweni looked to have sparked a market rout.
The eye-popping prediction that the proportion of government’s debt to gross domestic product would top 60% by 2024 sent the rand down as much as 2.3%, wiping out this year’s gains. The yield on the nation’s debt due 2026 briefly pierced past 9%.
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But a rescue plan for foundering power utility Eskom calmed traders’ nerves as it appeared to avert a South African credit rating downgrade from Moody’s Investors Service, at least for now. The beleaguered power utility that supplies 95% of the country’s power will receive a R69 billion ($4.9 billion) cash injection over the next three years to help service its debt. Part of the utility’s transmission business will also be sold to private investors.
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The rand was trading 0.2% higher as of 3:58 p.m. in Johannesburg, and the yield on government debt due 2026 declined three basis points to 8.85%.
“The government isn’t shying away from confrontation with the unions and is seeking equity partners for the transmission unit,” said Henrik Gullberg, a Nomura International strategist in London. “This is the best that realistically could have been hoped for.”
Moody’s is scheduled to assess South Africa’s debt on March 29. A cut to South Africa’s credit rating would see government bonds ejected from the World Government Bond Index with outflows from the bond market of between $8 billion and $10 billion, according to Investec Bank.
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“The bailout seems very risky with respect to the rating,” said Kieran Curtis, fund manager at Aberdeen Standard Investment. “Would the budget have been credible if they didn’t have this line item? I’m not sure.”
Source: moneyweb.co.za