Emerging markets rally as Donald Trump loses full control

Singapore/Dubai — US President Donald Trump’s loss of full control of US Congress is being given the thumbs-up by emerging markets.

Bonds, currencies and stocks rose as speculation that the US mid-term election result would produce policy gridlock in Washington weakened the dollar and took the edge off US treasury yields.

But with one source of uncertainty out of the way, focus is now shifting to what it means for Trump’s tax cuts and US-China trade relations, and how quickly the Federal Reserve will press ahead with the removal of stimulus.

“Investors are going to be relieved to have mid-term election news out of the headlines,” said Hannah Anderson, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong. Still, “nothing’s going to change on the trade front. Fears and sentiment about trade are going to continue to be reflected across the emerging-market complex, at least for the next couple of months”. 

There are enough domestic reasons for some of the biggest gains. The Indonesian rupiah had its fifth advance in six days as data showed the country’s foreign reserves rose in October for the first time this year.

Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index jumped with the real as president-elect Jair Bolsonaro indicated he will preserve the central bank’s independence, and data showed an unexpected easing of inflation.

The rand climbed to its strongest level in three months.

With Tomoko Yamazaki, Ruth Carson, Andrew Janes, Masaki Kondo and Denise Wee

Bloomberg