Asian shares fall to six-week low

Tokyo — Asian shares fell on Wednesday to a six-week trough, rattled by fresh trade war concerns following threats from President Donald Trump to Beijing, while increasing worries about a no-deal Brexit kept the pound under pressure.

Later in the day, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis more than a decade ago. The expected easing has supported risk asset prices worldwide.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.7% to the lowest since June 19, while Japan’s Nikkei declined by 1%. Major Wall Street stock averages ended slightly lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 losing 0.26%, after Trump warned China against waiting out his current presidential term before finalising a trade deal.

As a new round of US-China trade negotiations started in Shanghai, Trump tweeted that, if he wins re-election in November 2020, the outcome could be no agreement or a harsher one.

“We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points and keep the door open to further rate cuts, which should be sufficient to keep markets satisfied,” said Mayank Mishra, a macro strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. “US-China trade talks have just started after a long hiatus. I dont think expectations are that high.”

After the closing bell in the US, Apple shares rose 4.2% as its April-June earnings beat estimates and CEO Tim Cook cited “marked improvement in Greater China”.

In Asia, S&P 500 mini futures rose 0.07%. The S&P 500 index has risen 2.4% in July, bolstered by expectations for Fed easing. Fed funds rate futures are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday and another 25-basis-point reduction by September.

US consumer spending and prices rose moderately in June, pointing to slower economic growth and benign inflation that cemented expectations of Fed rate cuts.

Trump on Tuesday reiterated his call for the Fed to make a large interest rate cut, saying he was disappointed in the US central bank and that it had put him at a disadvantage by not acting sooner.

In addition to worries about trade talks with the US, Chinese shares suffered a further setback on Wednesday after the ruling Communist Party’s top decision-making body said late on Tuesday it will not use the property market as a form of short-term stimulus. The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 0.92%, with a slide in shares of property developers leading a retreat in the broader market.

China will also step up efforts to boost demand, the politburo said, which takes on more urgency after the country’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) on Wednesday showed factory activity shrank for a third straight month due to the trade war.

South Korean stocks fell more than 1% on Wednesday to the lowest since early January due to trade war jitters, while quarterly results from Samsung Electronics added to concerns over weak corporate earnings.

In currency markets, the British pound remains near a 28-month low hit the previous day on growing concerns about a disorderly Brexit. Sterling traded at $1.2152, not far from $1.2120 marked on Tuesday. It has fallen 4.3% so far in July, on course to log its worst monthly performance since October 2016.

“Trump’s comments suggest that US-China trade negotiations are not going well, which is a new negative factor for the markets,” said Osamu Takashima at Citigroup Global Markets Japan in Tokyo. “In addition to Brexit, markets are starting to price in the Bank of England moving to dovish from hawkish at its next meeting, so this drives sterling depreciation.” 

Other major currencies were less volatile with the yen flat at ¥108.55 to the dollar. The euro stood little changed at $1.1154.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.65% to $58.43 per barrel after earlier reaching a two-week high of $58.49 in early Asian trade. 

Reuters