Asian shares stumble as trade tension fuels concern about global economy

Tokyo — US stock futures, Asian share markets and oil prices slipped to multi-month lows on Monday on worries intensifying Sino-US tensions and Washington’s new tariff threats against Mexico could tip the global economy into a recession.

The E-mini futures for S&P500 dropped 0.5% in early Asian trade to 2,738, near their March low of 2,722 while Japan’s Nikkei skidded 1.1% to a four-month low.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed in early trade, but held barely above last week’s four-month low. The CSI 300 index of Chinese shares advanced 0.9%, but kept within its recent range.

Helping the mood, a private survey on Chinese manufacturing sector published on Monday pointed to a modest expansion in factory activity as export orders bounced from a contraction.

Yet the slightly better reading is unlikely to allay growing fears about the economic impact from an escalating trade dispute with the US. Indeed, a run of Chinese data recently, including an official survey on the nation’s manufacturing industry last week, showed rising pressure across the world’s second-largest economy.

Tensions escalated at the weekend as the two countries clashed over trade, technology and security.

Parcels diverted

A senior Chinese official and trade negotiator said on Sunday the US cannot use pressure to force a trade deal on China, refusing to be drawn on whether the leaders of the two countries would meet at the G20 summit to work out an agreement later in June.

China will investigate whether FedEx Corp damaged the legal rights and interests of its clients, the official Xinhua news agency said on Saturday, after Chinese telecoms giant Huawei said parcels intended for it were diverted.

“You could see this as a retaliation against Washington’s ban on Huawei. China could list FedEx in its black list of unreliable firms. We could see more of attacks on individual companies,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

The standoff between the world’s two largest economies go beyond trade, with tension running high ahead of the 30th anniversary of a bloody Chinese military crackdown on protesters around Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

China’s defence minister, Wei Fenghe, warned the US not to meddle in security disputes over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

The comments came after acting US defence secretary Patrick Shanahan told the meeting on Saturday that the US would no longer “tiptoe” around Chinese behaviour in Asia.

“No-one now thinks a deal would be possible at G20. It is going to be a prolonged battle. Investors are rushing to the safe assets,” Mitsubishi’s Fujito said.

In a sign that Sino-US frictions are putting a big strain on the global economy, South Korea’s exports — seen as a bellwether of world growth — fell 9.4% in May, worse than a median forecast for a 5.6% decline, official data showed on Saturday.

“Speculators are now building up trading positions to bet on a recession. If the upcoming US data such as today’s ISM manufacturing survey deteriorates, bearish bets on US stocks should gain momentum,” said Masanari Takada, cross asset strategist at Nomura Securities.

Rate cut

The gloomy economic outlook has prompted traders to increase bets that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

Fed funds rate futures are now almost fully pricing in a rate cut by September, with about 50% chance of a move by July 30-31.

JPMorgan now expects the Fed to cut rates twice in 2019, a major change from its previous forecast that rates will stay on hold until the end of 2020.

The 10-year US Treasuries yield fell to as low as 2.121%, a nadir last seen in September 2017.

In oil markets, US crude futures dropped 1.1% in early trade to $52.92, having touching their weakest levels since mid-February earlier in the day.

Brent crude futures tumbled 1.5% to $61.06 per barrel.

Copper futures in Shanghai fell 0.5% to two-year lows.

In the currency market, the safe-haven yen held firm. The dollar changed hands at ¥108.19, having dipped to as low as ¥108.17, its weakest level since mid-January.

The euro, which has been declining at a steady pace this year, was little moved at $1.1171, off last week’s low of $1.1116.

The Chinese yuan traded at 6.9418 per dollar, near 5½-month lows of 6.9497 touched on May 17.

The Mexican peso, hit by Trump’s sudden threat to impose tariffs on Friday, regained some stability, trading at 19.6355 to the dollar, after its 2.5% fall on Friday.

Mexico’s president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, hinted on Saturday his country could tighten migration controls to defuse tensions with Trump, saying he expected “good results” from talks planned in Washington this week.

Reuters