China worries hamper emerging stocks, Brazil to rally on Bolsonaro win

More signs of a cooling of the Chinese economy were countered on Monday by the prospect of a jump in Brazil’s financial markets after a sweeping victory for far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro in Sunday’s presidential election.

A Tokyo-listed Brazilian stock exchange traded fund (ETF) soared nearly 14%, while the London-listed iShares MSCI Brazil ETF gained about 3%.

Investors have cheered Bolsonaro’s win over the leftist Workers Party, hoping that he will carry out fiscal reforms proposed by his orthodox economic adviser.

The real closed on Friday at 3.64, its highest level since late May against the dollar. The currency has gained about 11% so far this month, while the main stock index rose 8% as the prospects of a Bolsonaro victory firmed.

The MSCI index of emerging market stocks gained for the first time in five days as other major emerging stock markets also inched higher following sharp falls last week driven by nerves stemming largely from a sell-off on Wall Street.

“Our initial assessment for the Bolsonaro administration is that it will have a pro-business stance, focused on enhancing the country’s competitiveness,” Ronaldo Patah, a Brazil strategist at the wealth management arm of Swiss bank UBS, wrote in a note.

“We expect more clarity on the new government’s plan for social security reform and how to address the fiscal deficit. Up to now, its message has been ambiguous.”

Brazil has been an outlier this year among developing world markets which have succumbed to selling pressure on worries about rising US interest rates, a global trade dispute and the strengthening dollar.

A slew of disappointing earnings reports last week from US tech behemoths Amazon and Alphabet further fuelled speculation that profit growth is peaking and drove the benchmark S&P 500 close to correction territory.

Chinese stocks took another 2% – 3% dive after data released on Saturday showed profit growth at China’s industrial firms slowed for a fifth straight month in September.

Nordea Markets analyst Morten Lund said data had begun to show the trade conflict in China having a knock-on effect on other economies. The MSCI but still was on track to end October with its worst monthly performance since May 2012.

“If you look at PMI export orders across the world, there are a lot of signs of them slowing down, even in emerging market countries where you don’t have the close linkages,” he said.

Indian stock markets got a lift after its central bank said it would buy $5.45 billion of government bonds via open-market operations in November as it seeks to inject liquidity into the market.

The Sri Lankan rupee slumped to a record low as growing political turmoil sparked panic buying of US dollars by importers, market sources said.

Sri Lanka was plunged into crisis late on Friday after President Maithripala Sirisena abruptly sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and swore in ex-president Mahinda Rajapaksa as the new prime minister to replace him.

Mexico’s peso fell as much as 1.9% after Mexicans voted to scrap a part-built $13 billion new airport for the capital in a divisive referendum pushed for by President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Analysts worry international treaties would be violated and companies would lose contracts if the project were scrapped.