CLYDE RUSSEL: Rising Russian crude supplies to China forces rethink of imports

If the view that Russian crude is no longer a factor in prices for the rest of the world’s oil is correct, excluding Russian supplies from China’s import data may provide a more accurate picture of the state of the market.

China’s oil imports have been rising in recent months, partly in anticipation of a reopening of the economy from pandemic controls and partly because Beijing has granted more refined product export quotas to allow refiners to access the high margins for fuels in Asia, especially diesel.

But while China’s crude imports have been rising, a greater share appears to have been captured by Russia. So, while the country’s call on supplies from other producers has been going up, it has risen more slowly than overall imports.

For example, Refinitiv Oil Research data put China’s total imports at 8.75-million barrels per day (bpd) in June, the lowest for 2022. For November imports were 11.42-million bpd, the highest for 2022, according to Refinitiv. If imports from Russia are excluded, it shows that June imports were 6.97-million bpd and November’s 9.52-million bpd.