Composite leading business cycle indicator is on the rise

ECONOMIC activity was expected to pick up later in the year as early signals of turning points in business cycles by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) indicated a slow start to 2021.

SARB said yesterday that its composite leading business cycle indicator increased 2.1 percent in January, rising the most since October 2020.

The leading indicator rose to 117.5 points from 115.1 points in December 2020. The SARB said the increases in four available component time series outweighed decreases in the remaining six.

It said the largest contributors were an acceleration in the 12-month rate of increase in job advertisement space.

An increase in the US dollardenominated South African export commodity price index also had a positive continuation to the print.