EM stocks cheer US-Mexico deal to avert tariffs, FX weaker

Emerging-market stocks rose to their highest in nearly four weeks on Monday and Mexico’s peso surged 2% as trade tensions eased between United States and Mexico, but a strong dollar and a slide in the yuan put pressure on most other developing-world currencies.

MSCI’s index of emerging-market stocks jumped 1%, with most stock indices higher after the United States and Mexico struck a deal on Friday that averted US tariffs on Mexican goods.

Increasing bets that the US Federal Reserve might soon cut interest rates also helped stocks.

But the lack of clarity on certain aspects of the US-Mexico deal, and no clear sign of de-escalation in the Sino-US trade conflict, kept risk appetite at bay.

“The lessening of US/Mexican tension clearly helps the mood somewhat, and obviously helps the peso, but the US/Chinese trade conflict has much wider implications,” Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes wrote in a note.

Hong Kong stocks jumped 2.4% and mainland China shares came back strong after a long weekend. Russian shares rose 0.4%, staying at record high levels. South African shares were on track for their sixth straight day of gains.

Among currencies, the Mexican peso came off five- months lows, where it had been languishing since tariffs were announced.

The Chinese yuan slipped to its lowest in more than six months after comments by China’s central bank chief were taken as indicating tolerance for a weaker yuan. Disappointing May import numbers from China exacerbated the yuan’s weakness.

Turkey’s lira fell 0.1%, looking set to extend losses to a third day, amid deteriorating diplomatic ties with the United States.

Washington laid out a plan to remove Turkey from its F-35 fighter jet program, increasing pressure over Turkey’s decision to go ahead with its planned purchase of Russian air defense systems that are incompatible with Nato systems.

Investors will also be watching Turkey’s central bank meeting later this week.

Danske Bank’s senior economist, Vladimir Miklashevsky, expects the rate to be left unchanged at 24%, but writes that the rising possibility of a Fed rate cut and inflating real rates in Turkey combined with global monetary easing could push the bank to cut rates at this meeting or by third quarter.

South Africa’s rand gained 0.1%, after a 2.5% slide last week set off by data that showed the economy shrank more than expected in the first quarter and a consequent dispute within the ruling party on the central bank’s mandate.