History suggests rebound for the rand after awful August

It’s been a bad August for the rand — but South Africa’s currency is due for a respite in September, if history is anything to go by.

The rand slumped about 6% against the dollar in the past month, the most in a year, as the escalating US-China trade war weighed on emerging-market assets, while Eskom’s troubles made investors wary about South Africa’s fiscal outlook.

 

An August slump is not unusual for the rand. It has declined against the dollar in eight out of the past 10 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. But in six of those eight years, the currency rebounded in September — including last year, when it posted a 3.7% gain.

With much bad news already priced in and emerging markets appearing to be stabilising after a tumultuous August, that pattern may well repeat itself this year.

© 2019 Bloomberg L.P.