Oil hits multi-month lows as downbeat mood persists

London — Oil prices fell to their lowest since the third quarter of 2017 on Friday, heading for losses of more than 11% in a week, as global over-supply kept buyers away from the market ahead of the long festive break.

Brent crude fell $1.56 to a low of $52.79 a barrel, its weakest since September 2017, before rallying to trade about $53.10, down 11.9% on the week, by 1.25pm GMT. US light crude oil was down 60c at $45.28, on course for a decline of 11.6% for the week.

Crude has lost ground along with major equity markets as investors fret about the strength of the global economy heading into next year. The prospect of a possible government shutdown in the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer, added to investors’ worries.

Falls were exaggerated by thin trade and risk aversion ahead of Christmas and the New Year holidays, traders said.“To say things are a bit negative i) a significant understatement,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at Oanda.

Since reaching multi-year highs at the beginning of October, both crude oil benchmarks have lost more than a third of their value in their steepest collapse for three years. Driving the sell-off has been sustained over-supply as the US has emerged as the world’s biggest crude producer thanks to the success of its shale industry.

The US now pumps 11.6-million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, putting it ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

The big oil producers in oil cartel Opec, dominated by Middle East Gulf states, which mostly rely on energy exports, have agreed to reduce production to try to push up prices. But those output cuts — a reduction with Russia and other non-Opec producers of 1.2-million bpd — do not kick in until next month, and, meanwhile, global inventories are filling up fast.

“The bear fest continues,” said Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil. “According to Opec’s own forecasts, global oil stocks will build by 500,000 bpd in the first half of 2019. This will compound a glut in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations’ commercial oil stocks.”

In an effort to show its commitment to reducing supply, Opec will release a table detailing output cut quotas for its members and allies such as Russia, Opec secretary-general Mohammad Barkindo said in a letter reviewed by Reuters.

To reach the proposed cut of 1.2-million bpd, the effective reduction for member countries was 3.02%, Barkindo said. This is higher than the initially discussed cuts of 2.5% as Opec seeks to accommodate Iran, Libya and Venezuela, which are exempt from any requirement to cut.

Reuters