Oil prices fall as global supply rises, mitigating concern about Iran

London — Oil prices fell to multi-month lows on Friday as global supply increased and investors worried about the impact on fuel demand from of lower economic growth and trade disputes.

Benchmark Brent crude oil fell below $70 a barrel for the first time since early April, down more than 18% since reaching four-year highs at the beginning of October.

Brent fell 66 US cents to a low of $69.99 a barrel before recovering slightly to trade at about $70.10 by 10.10am GMT, down 3.5% for the week and more than 15% this quarter.

US light crude oil was 55c lower at $60.12, down 4.7% this week and off more than 20% since early October, putting it officially in “bear market” territory.

“There is no slowing down the bear train,” said Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil.

Instead, the energy complex has extended a rout driven by swelling global supplies and a softening demand outlook. Oil peaked in October on concerns that US sanctions on Iran that came into force this week would deprive the oil market of substantial volumes of crude, draining inventories and bringing shortages in some regions.

But other big oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and shale producers in the US, have increased output steadily, more than compensating for lost Iranian barrels. The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia are all now pumping at or near record highs, producing more than 33-million barrels per day (bpd), a third of the world’s oil.

The US sanctions, meanwhile, are unlikely to cut supply as much as expected. Washington has granted exemptions to Iran’s biggest buyers, allowing them to buy limited amounts of oil for at least another six months.

China National Petroleum said it was still taking oil from Iranian fields in which it has stakes.

Washington has said it wants to force Iranian oil exports down to zero, but Bernstein Energy now expects “Iranian exports will average 1.4-million bpd to 1.5-million bpd,” during the exemption period, about half the volume in mid-2018.

“As Opec exports continue to rise, inventories continue to build, which is putting downward pressure on oil prices,” Bernstein said. “A slowdown in the global economy remains the key downside risk to oil.”

A glut in the refining sector, where a wave of unsold petrol has pulled profit margins into negative territory, may also lead to a slowdown in new crude orders as refiners scale back operations.

Reuters