Oil rises as oversupply and trade tension fears abate

New York — Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the market shifted focus to the possibility of increased Chinese demand, drawing attention away from trade tensions between that country and the US after a series of tariffs imposed by both countries.

Brent crude was up 57c at $73.63 a barrel by 12.50pm GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 86c at $68.75.

Reports on Tuesday that China will increase infrastructure spending helped lessen fears that US-China trade tensions will reduce the country’s demand for oil, said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “That’s going to be very bullish for oil demand,” Flynn said. “Infrastructure spending from China in the past had really jacked up oil demand, and I think that’s adding some outside support for prices.”

In addition, after an 8% decline from multi-year highs, Gene McGillian, vice-president of market research at Tradition Energy in Connecticut, said buyers are coming back into the market. With significant reductions in crude inventories because of strong global demand growth, the supply-and-demand picture will remain strong unless there are significant production increases from Russia and Saudi Arabia, McGillian said.

Both crude oil benchmarks have fallen this month as crude supplies from Russia, Saudi Arabia and other members of oil cartel Opec have increased, and some unscheduled production losses have eased. Market sentiment has been driven by fears that supply could be disrupted by confrontation in the Middle East or that Washington’s trade dispute with its major trading partners could dampen global growth.

Iran, Opec’s third-largest producer, which pumps 3.75-million barrels per day (bpd), has come under increasing US pressure, with the administration of President Donald Trump pushing countries to cut all imports of Iranian oil beginning in November.

Saudi Arabia and other large producers are ramping up output to offset losses likely to come as the November deadline approaches. US crude inventories at the US crude futures delivery hub at Cushing, Oklahoma rose in the four days to Friday, according to data supplier Genscape, traders said.

Stockpiles at the hub were expected to fall for the 10th consecutive week, traders said. A Reuters survey on Monday estimated on average that total US crude stocks fell by 3.2-million barrels last week, after rising in the previous week.

US industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its inventories data for last week at 8.30pm GMT on Tuesday. Official US energy department data will follow on Wednesday.

Reuters