“Expect fundamental pressure concentrated over March and April, an eight-week blitz period over which stocks currently stand to build north of one-billion barrels cumulatively,” said Roger Diwan, vice-president of financial services at IHS Markit.
At the same time, the collapse of a supply-cut pact between Opec and other producers led by Russia, known as Opec+, is set to boost oil supply, with Saudi Arabia planning to ship more than 10-million bpd from May.
Oil stocks are already rising with tanks around the world filling fast despite a 50%-100% jump in lease costs, as oil companies and traders scramble to park unwanted crude and refined products.
“At that tipping point, the producer surplus will become a massive logistical headache for oil storage consideration, which then opens up the trap door for oil prices to plummet below cash costs,” said Innes.
Vienna-based JBC Energy said it expected world oil demand to fall by an even larger 15.3-million bpd in the second quarter, likely pushing benchmark prices, at least temporarily, to about $10 per barrel.
“Opec+ as an organisation is of pretty limited relevance in this context, as they are neither likely to be willing nor able to stem the current demand shock,” said Johannes Benigni, chair at JBC Energy in a note on Wednesday.
US crude inventories rose by 1.6-million barrels in the most recent week, the US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, marking the ninth straight week of increases.
Products supplied, a proxy for US demand, dropped nearly 10% to 19.4-million bpd, EIA data showed.