OPINION: More of the same but different

JOHANNESBURG – One of the famous quotes of the legendary Sir John Templeton, one of the great and most respected investors, is: “The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘this time it’s different’.”

That is in stark contrast to the very popular narrative today that the global economic fallout of the coronavirus crisis is unprecedented, and probably worse than any other crisis in many decades. Travel came to a halt, trade vanished; borders are closed and people are forced into quarantine and self-isolation.

These are, however, the true characteristics of a full-scale war between superpowers. Not so?

A major event leading up to World War II was when Japanese and Chinese troops clashed in July 1937, which led to a full-scale invasion of China by Japan, also known as the Second Sino-Japanese War that lasted until 1945. Yes, Japan’s invasion was similar to the coronavirus that invaded China at the end of last year, and snowballed throughout the globe.

Remember that the financial markets and economies in 1937 were less sophisticated than today and data flows and communications were still very basic to say the least.

Source: iol.co.za