The rand is testing a key resistance level after a four-day streak that drove it to the strongest level since mid-March.
The currency on Wednesday surpassed R16.35 — the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from its April high to the February 2018 low — after failing to breach that level three times in the past three months. A sustained break below it could see the rand targeting the 50% retracement at R15.43, followed by the 61.8% level at R14.50.
The rand is the best-performing emerging-market currency this month after Mexico’s peso and Brazil’s real, buoyed by the highest real yields among developing nations and speculation that the South African Reserve Bank’s record policy-easing cycle may be coming to an end.
With the Federal Reserve likely to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future, South Africa’s currency may continue to attract demand from investors who borrow dollars to buy higher-yielding currencies, known as the carry trade. The rand has returned 4% in the carry trade this month.