Rand stronger as global mood improves on Italy’s softer fiscal stance

The rand remained firmer against the dollar on Monday afternoon as investors waited for a spate of local economic data releases and eyed developments on Brexit and the US-China trade war.

At 2pm the rand was up 0.3% against the dollar at R13.8088, while it was flat against the euro and pound at R15.6984 and R17.7538 respectively. The euro was 0.24% firmer at $1.369.

Risk-on sentiment crept back into the market this week after signs of progress in negotiations between the EU and Italy over the latter’s budget deficit.

This followed reports that the Italian government was seeking to avoid any penalties from Brussels, said Oanda analyst Craig Erlam. “While both populist coalition partners in government remain determined to deliver on election promises, there is an apparent willingness to negotiate on the deficit target,” he said.

The agreement of a draft Brexit deal has also further raised hopes a no-deal exit will be avoided, although this draft agreement will now need to be put before British legislators.

Local focus is on producer inflation data on Thursday, while the RMB business confidence index for the fourth quarter will be published on Tuesday. Trade balance figures for October are due on Friday.

The rand has found some support after the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, although external risks to SA remain.

This week may not be as good for the rand as the past week, although that should not detract from expectations that the local currency had further room to appreciate, said Mercato Financial Services analysts.

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