Weakening rand has analysts scratching their heads

The rand, often a proxy for global sentiment towards emerging-market assets, has taken a beating the past month, sliding almost 5%. The mystery is where to now after breaching R15/$ for the first time in more than two months.

Among the more bearish analysts, Bianca Botes, a director and treasury partner at Citadel Global, said it can go as low as R16/$, a level it has not reached since November 2020. It implies another drop of just less than 7%. On the other end, Shaun Murison from IG sees it settling between R14.50/$ and R15.50/$. A Bloomberg survey offers even less clarity. While the median prediction is for it to end the year at R14.75/$, the forecasts range from R13/$ to R17.03/$…