Covid-19 cases set to top 300 mark in SA

As the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in South Africa increased to 274 as of Sunday night, the tally is expected to surpass the psychological 300-mark over the next day.

This is considering that there has been double-digit growth in reported cases of the Covid-19 coronavirus in the country over the past few days. On Friday, the tally stood at 202 and by Saturday it had risen almost 20% to 240.

Read: Six or seven of every 10 people in SA ‘will get Covid-19’

The latest increase (as at Sunday night) slowed somewhat, showing a 14% rise to 274 cases. However, health officials are warning that the next two weeks will be crucial for South Africa. The government’s bans on most international travel, gatherings of more than 100 people and curbs on liquor trading hours for pubs, shebeens and restaurants are aimed at trying to avert the growth in local transmission of the contagious virus.

Noteworthy for South Africa, is that most Covid-19 cases (76%) confirmed thus far are related to people who have travelled overseas – largely to Europe and the US. Also, there has been no reported Covid-19-related deaths; and encouragingly the first recovery has been reported.

South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) said in a statement on Sunday night that it continues to monitor Covid-19 trends and transmission rates in the country.

“The NICD, as of 22 March 2020, confirms 34 new additional cases that have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 bringing the total number of Covid-19 cases to 274. Of the 274 cases, 208 (76%) have a history of travel from an area where Covid-19 is circulating. The majority of those without international travel history have had recent contact with persons who have travelled internationally,” it noted.

There 34 new cases that have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 bringing the total number of #COVID19 cases to 274. We urge the public to continue practicing preventive measures such as social distancing, hand hygiene and cough etiquette. pic.twitter.com/yAG2Usg3gO

— NICD (@nicd_sa) March 22, 2020

Over the weekend, the Eastern Cape reported its first two cases of Covid-19. This means that seven provinces in the country now have confirmed cases of the virus, except for North West and the Northern Cape.

Gauteng, the country’s economic hub and most populous province, is the epicentre with 132 of the 274 confirmed cases countrywide, followed by the Western Cape with 88 cases; and, KwaZulu-Natal with 36.

The NICD, however, noted in its latest statement that “the majority of the new cases were reported in the Western Cape Province”. Of the 34 new cases, 14 is in the Western Cape.

The government, health officials and the NICD will be keeping a beady eye on “local transmissions” of the virus. While some may think the government declaring “state of disaster” measures a week ago is somewhat draconian – especially around curbing large scale gatherings and liquor trade – the move is aimed at curtailing local transmissions.

A pandemic of local transmission will put great pressure on the country’s already shaky public healthcare system, but serious concerns have also been raised around the possible impact on the section of South Africa’s population already affected by immune-system-lowering diseases such as HIV and TB. According to UNAids, South Africa has more than 7.7 million people living with HIV.

One of the reasons given for the devastating toll of Covid-19 in Italy – now home to the most coronavirus-related deaths globally – is that country’s ageing population. Italy, which has around 60 million people, reportedly has the second oldest population in the world after Japan. According to the World Economic Forum, around a third of Italy’s population is over the age of 60.

With around 59 million people, South Africa has a slightly smaller population than Italy. However, South Africa has a much younger population with almost 64% under the age of 34; and, around 9% over the age of 60 years according to figures from StatsSA.