How Eskom plans to keep the lights on

Following a period of uncertainty, South Africans will be pleased to know that they will enjoy a warm winter and a bright Christmas as Eskom plans to keep the lights on for the next nine months at best or implement stage 1 load shedding at worst.  

On March 14 Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan could not give an answer to how long the power utility would implement load shedding for as the country was experiencing stage four power cuts that lasted until March 23 due to a combination of unplanned plant unit failures, a lack of diesel and abrupt cuts in import supply.

At the time Gordhan assured the public that there would be a plan in two weeks, and on Wednesday he kept his promise.

The minister together with the recently appointed technical review team, Eskom chief executive Phakamani Hadebe and board chair Jabu Mabuza took the media through the utilities “frank and factual” two-part plan on how Eskom plans to get better performance from its power plants. The group was also clear that there would be consequences for managers and employees who did not ensure that the plans were executed in the set timelines.

“Ensuring the right kind of supply of electricity will ensure that electricity does not act as a constraint to economic growth and this is absolutely crucial in the kind of situation that our economy finds itself in and our fiscus as well.

“We want mines to continue to produce, factories to continue to manufacture, retail to continue to do their business and small business to thrive and to ensure that the benefits of growth accrue to all South Africans,” said Gordhan. 

The “winter plan” and the “next nine months and the long term plan” are both a result of work done by Eskom, the technical review task team and the sustainability task team appointed by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Both plans have two scenarios, the first being no load shedding. In this case, Eskom will ensure that it will not lose more than 9 500 MW of energy to unplanned outages and tripping of power plants while planned outages will be kept between a range of 3 000 MW and 5 000 MW.

Should the unplanned outages go above 9 500 MW this will introduce stage 1 load shedding also known as scenario 2. This will only last for a maximum of 26 days, which will be spread out throughout the winter period.

Winter Plan

In order to stay within the 9 500 MW window for the winter period beginning in May until the end of August, Eskom will bring back two units which have been out for a long time. Kriel Unit 2 which produces 475 MW of power is scheduled to return to the grid on April 18 followed by Matla Unit 5 that will bring in a further 575 MW by May 13.

The Kusile 2 and Medupi 2 units which are not yet commercial are expected to add 1 200 MW when they are running, however, Eskom systems operator Bernard Magoro emphasised that they are still being tested and commissioned.

Magoro said efforts were also being made to bring Unit 3 at Kusile into synchronisation before the end of April and that Eskom had put in measures to ensure that money is approved and released on time to buy diesel and avoid a situation where there was a shortage.

“The other advantage with winter is because of the cooler weather conditions our plants tend to perform better; for example, at Matimba which is in Lephalale you can lose up to 1 000 MW on a bad day because of heat,” said Magoro

Eskom is expecting that its power lines from the Cahora Bassa hydropower plant, which were damaged by cyclone Idai, will be fully restored in May.

“If all these measures pan out we are quite confident that we will be able to stay within the 9 500 MW. There is hope but I think we should keep at the back of our mind that there may be those odd days where things get out of control,” said Magoro.

Next nine months and the long term plan

In order to avoid load shedding beyond August Hadede said the power utility would bring back Lethabo Unit 5 in December.

Hadebe said they would also be rallying intensive energy users, such as mines and industry, to reduce demand on the grid by at least 500 MW.   

“We have already spoken to them and they have shown a great deal of interest in working with us in that regard,” he said.

The public participation drive encouraging citizens to use less electricity is also estimated to bring in at least 100 MW to 500 MW.

Hadebe emphasised that Eskom would continue to implement its nine-point plan which outlines the long term turnaround strategy for the embattled utility.

Unlike in previous years, Eskom plans to maintain its preventative maintenance at 5 000 MW which is 40% up from that in the past. A budget of R49 billion over the next five years has been set aside to spend on maintenance in Eskom’s generation, transmission and distribution divisions.

At the same time, R4.5 billion will go towards resuscitating Medupi and Kusile which have long been under construction and have gone over-budget and are still not producing the intended output.

In addition, Eskom will no longer rely on one or two refineries for diesel and has lined up other suppliers who will be able to provide the fuel should there be a requirement to run open cycle gas turbines for longer than usual.

The discipline and rigour to ensure a greater sense of accountability in implementing these plans is what will separate them from past solutions.

“An important culture change needs to happen within Eskom where increased levels of accountability and consequence management are going to be key,” said Gordhan.

Source: moneyweb.co.za