Mystery around ‘tourism’ figures

It was probably not intentional, but the timing of the publication of a Statistics SA report on tourism turned out to be brilliant.

It arrived amid the closure of international borders, news that at least 200 000 Lesotho residents were stuck in SA, the quick erection of a fence between SA and Zimbabwe, and an equally quick announcement that the Auditor-General will investigate the fencing contract for irregularities.

Finance Minister Tito Mboweni unwittingly contributed to the debate on the movement of people between SA and our neighbouring countries with his remarks that SA citizens should be prioritised for scarce jobs.

While Mboweni’s remarks irked many, they immediately sprang to mind when reading the Stats SA report, because it shows a discrepancy of several million in the number of “holidaymakers” who arrive in SA, mostly by road from southern African countries, and the number who return to their own countries.

While arrivals by air largely match departures, figures show that 1.8 million of the 12.3 million tourists who arrived by road during 2019 didn’t leave.

Foreign travellers not leaving

“Unlike South African travellers, the volume of departures for foreign travellers has been lower than that of arrivals throughout the 15-year period,” says Stats SA, referring to figures from 2005 to 2019.

Figures for a specific year might not add up perfectly: a holidaymaker, for instance, might arrive from the UK in the second week of December and only depart in the third week of January the following year. However, similar timing of holidays in the previous year should balance the figures.

Thus, the difference of millions in the numbers year after year, together with the country of departure, beg for some explanation.

One needs to analyse different sets of figures to determine who the ‘tourists’ who prefer not to return to their own countries are.

Overall, the figures do not add up. Neither do the numbers in the latest Stats SA report tally with other sources.

According to Stats SA, more than 15.8 million foreign travellers entered SA last year. Around 3.4 million arrived by aeroplane and around the same number left through the airports. Another set of figures shows that most of the arrivals by air were classified as tourists from overseas countries.

Stats SA defines a tourist as a visitor who spends at least a few nights in SA. It defines overseas countries as all countries other than African countries.

Curiously, Stats SA has a category for travellers who cross the border into SA and visit for only a single day. These tourists come mostly from neighbouring countries.

The one-day visitors declared that the purpose their visit was a holiday, with a small percentage of some one-day visitors coming for study purposes and others for medical treatment.

Confusion abounds

A few quotes and statistics from the Stats SA report on tourism based on 2019 figures dispel the notion that SA received nearly 16 million tourists that year. “More than three quarters of foreigners arrived (77.9%) or left (74.9%) the country by road,” according to the report, immediately showing a discrepancy between arrivals and departures.

Of the 12.3 million who arrived by road, nearly 90% arrived from Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mozambique and Eswatini. The arrivals and departures from African countries mostly add up, except for visitors entering SA from Zimbabwe, presumably including citizens from Malawi and other countries to the north.

During 2019, more than three million people entered SA from Zimbabwe, but the figures suggest that only 2.25 million exited SA through the Zimbabwe border post.

Stats SA maintains that the main reason people entered SA during 2019 – 94.8% – was for holidays. Of these, nearly 4.6 million stayed only one day.

Home Affairs

Importantly, Stats SA says the management of population movements across SA borders as well as immigration in South Africa falls under the jurisdiction of the Department of Home Affairs (DHA), and that the statistical service relies on DHA figures.

“The method, the kind of data collected, the quality of data and the dissemination and availability of processed data differ widely among countries since there is no international standardised template for recording of information on travellers,” says Stats SA.

It says the level of infrastructure development and immigration policies and regulations determine data collection. This can include the scanning of travel documents and/or completion of a form when arriving in or departing from a country.

This information is used to classify arrivals into visitors or non-visitors. Non-visitors include long- and short-term migrants, permanent migrants, labour migrants, asylum seekers and students.

The data in the Stats SA report paint a completely different picture to the belief in the corridors of the DHA that SA receives millions of tourists.

A short list of comments and figures from the Stats SA report shows this clearly:

• The number of departures and arrivals of SA residents [has been] equal every year since 2005, reflecting citizens leave SA for holiday or business and come back again.
• The number of arrivals of foreigners travelling by air or sea matches the number of departures closely – around 3.5 million last year (2019).
• Nearly 78% of all foreigner visitors arrived by road in SA last year. That amounted to more than 12.4 million.
• Only 10.5 million left SA by road last year.
• Arrivals of foreign travellers entering SA by road exceeded departures by 1.8 million in 2019.
• More than 3.3 million foreigners arrived through the Zimbabwe/SA border post. Only 2.25 million left SA and went back to Zimbabwe last year.

More than a million foreigners who arrived through the Zimbabwe border post apparently stayed in SA in 2019, while the 2018 tourism report shows that 660 000 did not go back to Zimbabwe the previous year either.

Documented and undocumented

In contrast, the rather dated population census of 2011 recorded 2.2 million documented and undocumented migrants from Africa in SA. There is no consensus on the current number, with estimates ranging from only a slight increase since 2011 to as many as five million residing in SA.

The International Organisation for Migration estimated in a report published in November 2019 that SA is home to four million migrants from Africa, but the estimate was criticised for being way too high.

Stats SA says it is crucial to note that, unlike data from a census or sample surveys that count individual persons, border statistics measure ‘the movement of persons’ rather than ‘physical persons’. “The reason is that the same person can cross the border a number of times during a specified time and his or her information is recorded every time he or she passes through the border,” says Stats SA.

This does, however, not solve the riddle of the big difference between arrivals and departures as nobody can be in two places at the same time.

Meanwhile, Stats SA quotes from a United Nations report: “Because border statistics are derived from arrival data, it could be the most suitable data source for the direct measurement of the flow of immigrants (UN, 2011).”

In South Africa, the figures are dubious.

The Stats SA tourism reports for the last five years show that arrivals through the border with Zimbabwe exceeded departures by more than 3.3 million. Based on other figures in the report, this adds up – the 3.3 million did not, for example, go to OR Tambo to get a flight to America.

Are these travellers still in SA, or are the figures unreliable?