SA exits longest recession since 1992 with GDP bounce

South Africa came out of its longest recession in 28 years as the economy rebounded more than projected in the third quarter when most of the curbs to contain the spread of the coronavirus were eased.

Gross domestic product expanded an annualised 66.1% in the three months through September from the previous quarter, following a revised 51.7% decline in the three months through June, Statistics South Africa said Tuesday in the capital, Pretoria. That’s the strongest growth since at least 1990 and the first positive number after four quarters of contraction. The median estimate of 14 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a 54.4% increase in output.

On a non-annualised basis, the economy expanded 13.5% from the previous quarter. Compared with the same period last year, GDP contracted by 6%, the second straight quarter of decline.

The rebound in the quarterly figure was expected as output resumed in Africa’s most-industrialised economy after most activity was shuttered for much of the second quarter due to a strict nationwide lockdown. The recovery remains vulnerable, with power shortages and slow structural reforms likely to weigh on sentiment. The central bank projects GDP will shrink 8% this year and expand by 3.5% in 2021.