South African excess deaths surge to 59% as virus spreads

South African excess deaths, a measure of mortality exceeding historical averages, are surging as the coronavirus pandemic worsens in the country.

Between May 6 and July 14 there were 17 090 more deaths from natural causes than would have been expected, the South African Medical Research Council said in a weekly report published on Wednesday.

“In the past weeks, the numbers have shown a relentless increase – by the second week of July, there were 59% more deaths from natural causes” than historical data would have predicted, the council said in a statement. “The timing and geographic pattern leaves no room to question whether this is associated with the Covid-19 epidemic.”

Infections in South Africa have surged in recent weeks. Still, even though the country has 394 948 confirmed infections, the fifth-highest in the world, only 5 940 people have officially died of the disease, far less than countries with a comparable number of infections.

“The weekly death reports have revealed a huge discrepancy between the country’s confirmed Covid-19 deaths and number of excess natural deaths,” Debbie Bradshaw, chief specialist scientist at the council and a co-author of the report, said in the statement.

Tracking excess mortality is widely seen as way to gauge the full scale of fatalities from Covid-19. It includes those suspected of having the coronavirus who died without having been tested, as well as people who died of other causes after being unable to seek treatment because hospitals were swamped. Neither of those categories would be reflected in the official pandemic tally.

The Department of Health has previously dismissed the reports.

© 2020 Bloomberg