Too soon to tell how Covid-19 will affect SA’s demographics

South Africa does not yet have enough trend data to determine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the country’s population statistics, says Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke. 

The population grew by around 800 000 between 2019 and 2020 to a size of 59.62 million people, according to the mid-year population estimates released by Statistics SA on Thursday.

SA confirmed its first case of Covid-19 on March 5. Since then the number of confirmed cases has grown to over 200 000, with a total of 3 602 recorded deaths as of Wednesday.

Mortality, fertility and migration 

Maluleke explained that forecasting the full impact of the virus with insufficient trend data particularly related to mortality, fertility and migration would “create a far greater uncertain set of population estimates for current planning and decision-making”. 

By mid-year there were 2 657 confirmed Covid-19 deaths, which is marginal compared with the total number of deaths the country experienced in the year, said Maluleke. 

“It’s quite premature to speculate and look at what the Covid-19-related deaths would mean in the 2020 cycle of mid-year estimates,” he said

Similarly, the impact of the virus on childbirths will only be reflected in the 2021 reports, with Stats SA assuming that there will be a decline due to economic uncertainties. 

Travel restrictions have affected migration patterns, with international migration reducing over the past months and most domestic movement being of a temporary rather than permanent nature.

“There are sufficient scientific reasons based on the evidence that we have that we will talk about the impact of Covid-19 in the future, but certainly not now,” Maluleke added.

The elderly 

For instance, of the 59.6 million people in South Africa, about 5.4 million are considered elderly (defined as 60 years and older).

The number of people in this group grew by 3% between 2019 and 2020, compared with 1% in 2001 and 2002, when Stats SA first compiled the mid-year estimate population report. 

“Vulnerabilities evident in this age group range from the need for social assistance programmes and easy access to cash transfers to food programmes and access to health care.

“With the challenge of the Covid-19 pandemic, we need to focus our attention on protecting our elderly,” Stats SA said. 

“In developed countries where the average population is older, the countries saw higher deaths related to Covid-19 among the elderly. However, developed countries also have better-functioning health systems.

“Although the health burden may be greater in developed countries due to their age profile, they have a greater ability to meet it,” said Stats SA. 

The statistical service said life expectancy in SA has been increasing since 2007, and has improved to 62.5 years for males and 68.5 years for females.

But it warned that “these gains could be lost” should Covid-19 deaths continue unabated due to a lack of effective treatment and a vaccine. 

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HIV/Aids 

“In recent years, South Africa has moved from a country suffering mostly mortalities from communicable diseases such as tuberculosis and HIV/Aids – which are often concentrated at younger ages – to scenarios where most causes of death are attributable to non-communicable diseases manifesting at late ages, such as strokes or heart disease,” it said.

The number of Aids-related deaths in 2020 shows a reduction of almost 50% compared with 2002 when they accounted for 30.6% of total deaths. 

At present 7.8 million people are estimated to be living with HIV in South Africa, with a higher prevalence rate in the 15-49 year age group; 18.7% of these adults are estimated to be HIV-positive. 

Three provinces have 57% of the population

Gauteng, the economic hub of the country, still accounts for the biggest number of people in the country, with 15.5 million people (26% of the population) living in the province. 

This is followed by KwaZulu-Natal (11.5 million) and the Western Cape (seven million). All three provinces account for 57% of the total population. 

Read: Unemployment rate hit record high before virus

The split in gender shows that an estimated 51.1% of the population is female and 48.9% is male. 

Black people make up the largest share of the population at 81%, followed by coloured (9%), white (8%) and Indian or Asian people (3%).