Battered cryptocurrencies may be in for even more pain

As if cryptocurrencies haven’t been through enough already, they may be poised for yet another leg down.

Digital currencies are on track to retest their fourth-quarter lows in a weak technical position, Fundstrat Global Advisors strategist Robert Sluymer said in a note on Wednesday. A proprietary gauge of market breadth in the space shows smaller coins are most at risk, he added.

“The price structure for most cryptocurrencies remains weak and appears vulnerable to a pending breakdown to lower lows,” Sluymer wrote. Fundstrat’s advance/decline indicator, which measures market breath for 250 small-cap cryptocurrencies, “is at risk of breaking to new lows”.

Digital currencies have had a tough time over the past year with bitcoin, the most well-known of the lot, down more than 80% from its December 2017 high. In a recent report, JPMorgan Chase & Co estimated the cost to create one bitcoin was US$4 060 globally in the fourth quarter, higher than the $3 369 level it was trading in Asia on Thursday.

While Sluymer’s own firm has stopped giving price targets for bitcoin over specific time frames, the key level to watch for the digital currency is $3 100, he said.

“A break below the fourth-quarter lows at $3 100 would imply a decline to $2 270, while a move above $4 200 is needed to signal bitcoin is beginning to improve,” he said.  — Reported by Joanna Ossinger, with assistance from Cormac Mullen, (c) 2019 Bloomberg LP