Asian stocks tumble as Fed signals higher rates

Hong Kong — Asian stocks followed Wall Street’s lead on Thursday, dipping across the board as investors interpreted the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy statements as signalling higher-for-longer interest rates.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.6%, with the Hong Kong benchmark shedding 0.8%. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1%.

The yield on two-year US treasury notes rose to a 17-year high of 5.1970%.

“People were picking and choosing what they wanted to look at, which was obviously more on the negative side, so I think sentiment today would lean more towards the red end,” said Ben Luk, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets.

The overall tone of the Fed’s latest meeting was not overly hawkish, but there were two surprises, he said.

Forecasts for 2024 were slightly higher than generally expected and Fed statements implied the view that macroeconomic growth would hold up even with rates staying higher for longer, Luk said.

The US central bank held interest rates on Wednesday and projected an increase by year-end, saying monetary policy is likely to be significantly tighter through 2024 than previously thought.

The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 5.1% by year-end, vs 4.6% estimated in June.

Even as inflation slows for the rest of 2023 and in coming years, the Fed anticipates only modest initial reductions to its policy rate.

Upward revisions to US policymakers’ median rate forecasts for the next couple of years triggered a rebound in the US dollar, pushed US treasury yields to multiyear highs, flattened the yield curve and sent stocks tumbling.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of rivals, rose as high as 105.59 on Thursday, its strongest since March 9, pushing the yen close to its weakest since November.

The yield on benchmark 10-year treasury notes rose to 4.4310%, a 16-year peak.

Major US stock indices fell. US stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were down 0.12% in early Asia time.

Investors are now awaiting monetary policy decisions on Thursday from Indonesia, the Philippines and Taiwan, while a finely balanced call from the Bank of England (BOE) will also give steer to Asian markets.

US crude dipped 0.5% to $89.21 a barrel. Brent crude fell to $93.12.

Gold was slightly lower, with spot gold trading at $1928.9362 an ounce.

Reuters