Attack on Israel likely to boost appeal of gold, safe haven assets

Hostilities in Israel are likely to prompt a move into safe haven assets as investors closely watch events in the Middle East to gauge geopolitical risk to markets.

Gunmen of Palestinian group Hamas entered Israel in an unprecedented attack on Saturday. Western countries, led by the US, denounced the attack and pledged support for Israel.

Rising geopolitical risk could see buying in assets such as gold and the dollar and boost demand for US treasuries, which have been sold off aggressively, said analysts.

“This is a good example of why people need gold in their portfolios. It is a perfect hedge against international turmoil,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, who predicted the dollar would also benefit.

“Any time there is international turmoil, the dollar strengthens,” Cardillo said.

Markets have been reacting in recent weeks to an expectation that US interest rates will stay higher for longer. Bond yields soared while the US dollar has been on a streak of gains. Stocks had sharp losses for the third quarter but stabilised in the past week.

“Whether this is a massive market moment or not depends on how long it lasts and whether others are sucked into the conflict,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, of the situation in Israel. Jacobsen questioned how much effect it would have on the oil price despite Iran having been boosting output.

Iran and Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese allies, praised the Hamas attack.

“Iranian oil production has been increasing, but any progress they’ve been making behind the scenes with the US will be dramatically undermined by Iran’s celebrating Hamas’s actions,” said Jacobsen, who said that “the possible output loss matters, but it won’t be earth-shattering”.

“It’s most critical to see how Saudi Arabia reacts,” said Jacobsen. Washington has been trying to strike a deal that would normalise ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

David Kotok, chair and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, Florida, said that the situation was concerning as the US is weakened by dysfunction in Washington. Republicans are looking for a successor to ousted speaker Kevin McCarthy of the House of Representatives, and a budget showdown looms.

“I am very worried about more explosive situations that require US determination and US defence capability which is being injured,” by the situation in Washington, said Kotok.

Reuters