China shares boost emerging stocks, FX creeps higher

Chinese stocks hit a one month high as most emerging market shares rose and currencies edged up against a steady dollar on Monday amid mixed signals on the Sino-US trade front and concerns about a global growth slowdown.

Optimism prompted by US President Donald Trump saying on Friday that he may not impose more tariffs on Chinese goods was countered by US Vice President Mike Pence saying that there would be no end to tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods until China changed its ways.

“I don’t think it will escalate to further tariff hikes but it seems on the whole as a prolonged war, both in terms of politics and economics,” said Morten Lund, an analyst at Nordea Markets.

“(We) expect a better tone when Xi Jinping and Donald Trump actually meet at the (G20) summit.”

The MSCI index of emerging market shares rose 0.5%, with mainland China stocks gaining around 1% each boosted by policy support measures aimed at shoring up weak markets and promoting growth.

Philippine shares led the gains among developing world stocks, up 2.6%, extending a rate hike rally from last week.

Equities in Russia, Turkey and South Africa gained between 0.2% and 0.6%.

The emerging market currency index rose slightly, with investors betting on the possibility of the US Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle petering out.

But, the Fed raised concerns on a potential slowdown in the global economy which sent US Treasury yields lower, and weakened the dollar.

The yuan broke a four-day winning streak on growing expectations the central bank could cut lending rates to combat weaker economic growth.

The Russian rouble was up 0.2%, tracking a higher move in oil prices, while the Turkish lira was steady.

South Africa‘s currency firmed 0.2% with investors watching for the central bank interest rate meeting on Thursday.

The bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold, a Reuters poll showed, but the number of economists forecasting a rise suggests it is a very close call.

India’s rupee cut losses from earlier in the session and was up 0.4% as the central bank meets to discuss a liquidity crunch amid an unprecedented feud between the government and the central bank.

The major thing to look out from the meeting is if the central bank decides to provide any relief to non-banking financial companies facing tight liquidity, said Saurabh Jain, assistant vice-president-research at SMC Global Securities.

The Thai baht was 0.2% lower after data showed economic growth in the third quarter slowed unexpectedly, possibly delaying an interest rates hike for the first time since 2011.

Eastern European currencies were little changed.