EM shares fall on trade woes but FX gains on Fed rate-cut hope

Emerging stock markets fell on Wednesday on fresh fears over the US-China trade war, while most developing currencies gained in anticipation of the Fed’s first rate cut in more than a decade.

US President Donald Trump warned China on Tuesday against waiting out his first term to finalise any trade deal, saying if he wins re-election in 2020, the outcome will be worse for China.

MSCI’s emerging market stock index fell 0.5%, leaving it on track to end the month lower.

Mainland China shares fell, while real estate shares slid after a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party said Beijing will not use the property market as a form of short-term stimulus.

South Korean shares closed near their lowest level this year, weighed down by Samsung Electronics which posted a 56% plunge in June-quarter profit as an oversupply of memory chips weighed on prices.

Moscow stocks slipped marginally but held near all-time highs after Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank , boosted the benchmark after reporting better-than-expected second quarter results.

Most developing world currencies climbed against a soft dollar ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement where officials are widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis.

“If the Fed comes with a very dovish message we are going to see a very positive reaction from EM assets but anything less may disrupt that momentum,” said Cristian Maggio, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities.

Turkey’s lira, a high-yielding EM currency, was the prominent gainer, up 0.6% and on track to deliver its best month this year.

Delivering the Turkish central bank’s first quarterly inflation report since his appointment as governor, Murat Uysal said the economic outlook for the recession-hit economy was better than April even though the bank lowered its inflation forecast for 2019.