Emerging market stocks dip on global trade worries, FX holds firm

Emerging market stocks dipped on Wednesday as fresh doubts over progress in US-China trade talks and global growth concerns weighed, while developing world currencies held firmed against a resurgent dollar.

A report of a preliminary US-China trade meeting being cancelled, though later denied by Washington on Tuesday, put a lid on risk sentiment towards the developing world.

“We are sceptical about any concrete deals being made in the short-term,” said Morten Lund, an analyst with Nordea Markets.

“Let’s see if Trump changes his mind,” he added, noting pressure on US markets would give fresh impetus to talks.

MSCI’s index of emerging market stocks declined 0.2%, adding to Tuesday’s 0.8% fall.

Stocks in Taiwan, which have a significant weighting on the benchmark lost half a percent, while those in fellow heavyweights China and South Korea averted heavy losses on hopes China will step up stimulus measures to support its economy.

In the spot market, China’s yuan firmed to wipe away all losses incurred since Friday.

Turkey’s lira firmed 0.3%, weathering data showing consumer confidence fell to 58.2 points in January from 58.7 points a month earlier.

Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said he expects the issue with the United States involving state-backed Halkbank in an Iran sanctions-busting case to be resolved soon.

However, some market participants found Albayrak’s assertion that Ankara currently sees no recession or negative growth hard to believe.

“We do believe that Turkey will be hit with recession, and do not share that view. It’s a bit surprising their stance given from our sources we know policymakers are at consensus over the country going into recession,” said Nordea’s Lund.

Turkish stocks rose 0.4%, while Halkbank’s shares gained 1.1%.

Russia’s rouble strengthened 0.2%, while firm prices of oil aided the country’s energy stocks as they drove the local equity index 0.3% higher.

South Africa‘s rand firmed 0.6%, recouping some of the Tuesday’s 1.1% loss.

Data showed headline consumer inflation slowed to 4.5% year on year in December from 5.2% in the previous month, in line with expectations of a Reuters poll.

In emerging Europe, Romania’s leu firmed 0.3% against the euro, to recover some of Tuesday’s losses, which saw it trade at an all-time low, down 1.4%.

Analysts at Societe Generale wrote in a note that while Romania’s currency reserves appear sufficient to manage foreign exchange pressures, policy inaction such as not using reserves, changing fiscal policy, or introducing other stabilisation policies could keep the leu under pressure as sentiment is fragile.

The surplus yield investors receive by holding Romanian local 10-year bonds as compared to German local 10-year bonds hit its highest in more than six years during the session – at over 498 basis points.