Europe gains for third day while trade-war worries see Asia bourses pegged back

London — European shares headed for a third day of gains on Thursday, as reassuring economic data from Germany and a report that its big car makers could be spared from US tariffs offset another gloomy session for Asia.

Trade-war nerves had pegged all of Asia’s bourses back with a US deadline to impose tariffs on Chinese imports on Friday, but it was another widely-flagged target — the German car sector — that drove Europe’s fast start.

Mercedes-maker Daimler, and BMW Porsche and Volkswagen (VW) raced up as much as 5% after a newspaper report about a US offer to suspend tariff threats on EU-made cars if the bloc lifts its duties on US ones. The mood was also helped as German industrial orders saw a stronger-than-expected jump after four months of falls.

The euro briefly topped $1.17 and bond yields also rose on a report that the European Central Bank (ECB) thinks markets are now too cautious on when it will raise eurozone interest rates next year.

Later in the day, traders will also get the minutes from the recent meeting of the US Federal Reserve in which it raised rates for a second time this year and flagged that more are likely.

“The euro is getting a bit of a lift on the German data though the trade concerns will continue to dominate markets with the Fed minutes being the key data point,” said Kenneth Broux, a currency strategist at Société Générale in London.

The overnight slide in Asian markets, in particular Chinese shares which are now deep into “bear” market territory, highlighted the ongoing angst over US President Donald Trump’s trade tariff plans. On Friday, US tariffs on $34bn worth of Chinese imports will take effect, and Beijing has promised to retaliate in kind, though it did say overnight that it will “absolutely not” fire the first shot in a trade war.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, which has been dropping since Monday, ended down 0.5%. The index has lost about 2% this week, plumbing a nine-month low in the process.

Japan’s Nikkei shed 1%, South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.75%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was off 0.9%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9% to take its dive since late January to 23%. With Europe advancing though, Wall Street’s S&P 500 futures edged up 0.4% and Dow futures added 0.3%, pointing to a solid start following Wednesday’s Independence Day holiday.

“The $34bn US tariffs figure has been mostly factored [in] by the markets and focus is now on what the US says on the remaining $16bn [of a promised $50bn tariff plan],” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management in Tokyo.

Weaponise

In currencies, the euro’s gain was the dollar’s loss. This helped ease some of the pressure on volatile emerging-market currencies, though Turkey’s lira went lower again as the country’s prime minister said cutting interest rates was a top priority.

The Chinese yuan was also slightly lower, its recovery from an 11-month low stalling. A rebound in the yuan was triggered in the past two sessions after the country’s central bank sought to calm nervous markets and stem the recent tumble. The longer term direction for the yuan is still unclear.

China appears broadly comfortable with a weakening yuan and would intervene only to prevent any destabilising declines or to restore market confidence, policy insiders told Reuters. “Although we do not believe China will weaponise its currency, we do believe the current trajectory of Chinese yuan depreciation is justified,” strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note.

The dollar was 0.1% higher against the yen at ¥110.610, though it was sticking in a narrow range ahead of the US Federal Reserve minutes that could give fresh clues on central bank’s rate hike plans.

In commodities, Brent oil futures were down 0.7% at $77.69 a barrel, after US President Donald Trump sent a tweet demanding that oil cartel Opec reduce prices for crude. Brent had risen on Wednesday on a threat from an Iranian commander to disrupt oil shipments from neighbouring states if Washington continued to press all countries to stop buying Iranian oil, and a drop in US crude inventories.

ING said in a note: “If Trump continues to believe that Opec is not doing enough, we would not rule out a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release from the US, or possibly even export restrictions on petroleum products.”

Reuters