From the barrel: Crude oil and Covid-19 virus, two black swans of the market

JOHANNESBURG – March 6 witnessed with horror as the price of crude oil stumbled unexpectedly. With uncertainty at first it took a precipitous nosedive that bewitched the market into a panic frenzy.

In a desperate attempt to comprehend the nature of the calamity on the equity markets worldwide, someone shouted “price war”. And so in black and white pose, the crisis got stuck in mid-frame, raising questions about who was at war, how and what in all probability would be the consequence to the unsuspecting consumer. So began our efforts to rummage through the embers in search of the meaning of the moment.

In an era where fact is contested by something more powerful, armed as it is with Twitter arsenal and an inscrutable alternative universe, Covid-19 prescribed a woeful defining moment.

A disruptive intervention by any measure, it entered a room peopled with markets, fear, half-truths and an American presidential election campaign season. Tossing things about and finding nothing of consequence, it strolled aimlessly toward 17 Helferstorferstrae for no reason other than the fact that there were too many important people talking about Covid-19, oil production quotas, prices and organisational unity and discipline.

In these hallowed halls of Vienna, no matter what was on the agenda, the two elephants which were not, sat agitated, waiting for calamity to announce. The first was the role of Saudi Arabia as a swing producer within an organisation fast losing global relevance.