Investors tested on gloomy global growth forecasts

London — April’s equities rally risked running out of steam on Tuesday, as a US threat to slap tariffs on hundreds of European goods and expectations of another chunky chop to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) global growth forecasts tested investors’ stamina.

Asia had eked out an eight-month high overnight but Europe was left flat after the office of the US trade representative sent its proposals to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), saying the EU had provided $11bn worth subsidies to Airbus.

The plane maker’ shares dropped as much as 2.5% in early deals. Many of its key suppliers lost between 0.7% and 1.2%, though it could have been worse and most of Europe’s big bourses clawed back to level.

Aberdeen Standard Investment’s head of global multi-asset strategy, Andrew Milligan, said: “Signals like this just remind people … that the strategic rivalry between the US and other countries is serious and is not going to go away.”

The day’s other focus was set to be the IMF’s half-yearly forecasts, which are likely to reinforce the message that trade spats are contributing to slowing the global economy. The IMF is expected to make quite a sizeable cut to its growth number and Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield stayed just below 0% on bets that interest rates are set to stay extremely low globally.

In the forex market, sterling nudged higher as UK Prime Minister Theresa May prepared to meet Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron to ask for another Brexit delay.

The Australian and Canadian dollars and Norwegian krone and Russian rouble also rose as a surge in oil prices to five-month highs lifted most other commodity-linked currencies too.

Brent, the global benchmark, rose as high as $71.34 a barrel, the highest since November, and by 8.50am GMT was up 14c at $71.24. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also hit a November 2018 high of $64.77 and was up 22c at $64.62.

Oil prices — up more than 40% this year — have jumped on expectations that global supplies will tighten due to fighting in Libya, oil cartel Opec-led supply cuts and US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Analysts at JBC Energy wrote, “Concerns over the potential squeezing of supply in Libya following the escalation of violence there are adding fresh impetus.” .

Reuters