Picture: David Ritchie
JOHANNESBURG – Non-Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) data releases will dominate the calendar next week even though there are many Stats SA releases due as well, as the week has both month-end and start of the month data releases.
The week starts off with the Stats SA data on April liquidations and March insolvencies. This data shows how much stress companies and individuals are under. The good news in the first quarter was that both liquidations and insolvencies showed year-on-year (y/y) declines and this should continue in Monday’s release.
The March tourism data on Tuesday should show a strong y/y increase as Good Friday shifted into March this year from April last year. This shift was reflected in the visitor data for Mauritius which showed a 5.8% y/y fall in April after rising by 8.7% y/y in March.
The 2016 Stats SA data on marriages and divorces on Wednesday will show whether South African couples are confident enough about the future to make a long-time commitment. Economic hardship resulted in a 26% decline in the number of marriages between 2008 and 2015 to 138,627.
On Wednesday we will also have the non-Stats SA data releases of April money supply and April government finances. Economists are expecting a rise in credit to boost money supply growth, but the large provisional financing data points to a big fiscal deficit.
Broad M3 money supply growth eased to 6.42% y/y in March from 6.89% y/y in February, but economists expect a jump to the 7% level in line with jump in narrow M0 money supply growth to 7.62% y/y in March from 5.69% y/y in February. Credit demand was subdued at the start of the year as total loans and advances y/y increase dipped to the lowest since 2009 in January at 3.82% y/y, but it has subsequently recovered to 4.52% y/y in March from 4.4% y/y in February and a y/y rise near 5% is expected for April.
On Thursday we have the Stats SA data releases on April producer inflation and April electricity supply and demand, as well as the foreign trade data from the South African Revenue Service.
Producer inflation eased to 3.7% y/y in March from 4.0% y/y in February, but a rise to the 4% level is expected in April. The Easter shift impacted on electricity demand with a 0.1% y/y fall in March after a 0.4% y/y gain in February and economists expect a 1% y/y rise in April.
The week ends with the start of the month non-Stats SA data with the May Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector and the May new vehicle sales data.
The Absa / Bureau for Economic Research manufacturing index rose to 50.9 in April from 46.9 in March and economists expect that the index will remain above 50 in May.
The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of SA (Naamsa) new vehicle sales are expected to have a y/y gain for the third consecutive month in May after increasing by 3.6% y/y in April and rising by 1.1% y/y in March. This increase will most likely to be fuelled by new car sales, which jumped by 6.4% y/y in April after rising by 3.7% y/y in March.
Light commercial vehicle sales have disappointed so far this year as they dipped by 1.2% y/y in April after a 2.3% y/y drop in March. Medium commercial vehicle sales declined by 12.1% y/y in April after slumping by 14.6% y/y in March, while heavy vehicle sales rose by 1.3% y/y in April after falling by 9.7% y/y in March.
– BUSINESS REPORT