Oil lifts as fears about restricted supply rear

London — Oil rebounded on Thursday as expectations of a tighter global crude supply outlook for the rest of 2023 overshadowed concerns over weaker economic growth and rising US inventories.

Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extension of oil output cuts will result in a market deficit through the fourth quarter, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday before a bearish US inventories report prompted a slight pullback in prices.

“That this genuinely bearish stock report only led to a brief temptation to sell speaks volumes and underlines the market mentality,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

The tightening oil balance will remain the dominant price driver for the rest of 2023, he added.

Brent crude rose 83c, or 0.9%, to $92.71 a barrel by 8.10am GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 70c, or 0.8%, at $89.22.

Both benchmarks touched 10-month highs on Wednesday before release of the US supply report showing rising crude and refined product stocks sent prices lower.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said supply fears are underpinning oil prices as producers “adamantly stick to restricted production”.

A day before the IEA report, Opec issued updated forecasts of solid demand and also pointed to a 2023 supply deficit if production cuts were maintained.

“The oil market looks decidedly tight over the next two to three quarters as supply constraints persist amid robust demand,” ANZ Research analysts said.

In focus later on Thursday will be the latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank.

Analyst and investor expectations had been leaning towards a pause in rate increases until Reuters reported on Tuesday that the ECB was set to raise its inflation forecast for 2024 to more than 3%, bolstering the argument for higher interest rates. 

Reuters