Oil prices could rise again over Russian supply risks, says trader Vitol

“I happen to be in the camp that thinks China will continue to suppress this,” Muller said. “The Chinese are certainly making a good fist of arresting it.”

Beijing will probably announce more economic stimulus measures before the Communist Party Congress later this year, Muller said. Such a move is likely to bolster demand for oil in the world’s biggest importer.

“China will throw the kitchen sink at making sure the economy delivers,” he said. “We are going to see China put a massive effort into infrastructure spending and propping up the economy. You’re going to see a big outlay.”

There is also less chance of the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers being revived in the coming months, according to Muller. A deal would limit Tehran’s atomic activities and lift US sanctions on its energy exports, enabling it to ramp up oil production.

US officials said late last month that a pact was not “imminent”, while Iran has made similar comments. Envoys are yet to say when they will return to Vienna for negotiations and many US allies in the Middle East — including Israel and Saudi Arabia — are wary that a revival of the deal would hand Iran an oil windfall and allow it to continue arming proxy groups in the region.

“Everyone was expecting a return of Iranian supplies,” Muller said. Now “no-one believes that’s going to happen in the second quarter. It looks much less likely than it did a few weeks back.”

Geneva-based Vitol traded 7.6-million barrels of crude and oil products last year, and made revenue of $279bn.

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