Oil rebounds amid hope stimulus will counter virus worries

Singapore — Oil prices rebounded more than $1 a barrel after earlier hitting multiyear lows on Monday, as hopes of a deeper cut in output by Opec and stimulus from central banks countered worries about damage to demand from the coronavirus outbreak.

Brent crude was at $51.31 a barrel, up $1.64 or 3.3%, by 7.02am, off $48.40, the lowest since July 2017.

Across the Atlantic, US West Texas Intermediate crude hit a 14-month low of $43.32, before recovering to $46.11, up $1.35, or 3%.

Both marked their first gain after six sessions of losses amid virus worries.

The coronavirus, which originated in China, has killed nearly 3,000 and roiled global markets as investors brace for a steep knock to world growth. Equities marked their biggest rout since the 2008 financial crisis last week.

Dragging on oil prices earlier in the day was data unveiled at the weekend by China, the world’s top energy consumer. Factory activity in the country shrank at the fastest pace yet in February, underscoring the colossal damage from the outbreak on its economy.

“On the one hand, it’s pretty negative on worldwide crude oil and product demand,” said Lachlan Shaw, head of commodity research at the National Australia Bank.

But then there is news Saudi Arabia is pushing for a cut of a million barrels per day (bpd) to be agreed this week, while central banks are increasingly signalling an appetite to intervene and support markets by cutting interest rates, he said.

Additional cut

“So it’s a balance and it’s going to be pretty volatile.”

Several key Opec members are mulling the additional production cut in the second quarter amid fears the virus outbreak will erode oil demand. The previous proposal was for an additional output cut of 600,000 bpd.

Oil prices are down more than 20% since the start of the year despite Opec and its allies including Russia, a grouping known as Opec+, curbing oil output by 1.7-million bpd under a deal that runs to end-March.

“Inaction by Opec+ is likely to trigger another potentially severe bout of selling,” analysts at Fitch Solutions have said.

Current prices would also provide an incentive to Russia to agree to further output cuts though “any cut will likely be of a short duration, for example, three months, with the barrels brought immediately back to market thereafter”, Fitch analysts said.

Reuters