Oil rises on Chinese exports and US output cuts

London — Oil prices rose on Thursday on a surprising rise in China’s April exports, US output cuts and the slow return of some activity in Europe.

Brent crude was up $1.48, or 4.98%, to $31.20 a barrel by 11.03am GMT, after dropping 4% on Wednesday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose $1.48, or 6.17%, to $25.47 a barrel, after having declined more than 2% in the previous session.

“Brent is trying to go back to early April levels, the market is testing the capacity of Brent to stay above $30 a barrel,” Olivier Jakob of consultancy PetroMatrix said. “We’re out of the super-contango now. Refinery runs are coming back, the US is cutting production so this is providing support.”

China was a bright spot in terms of oil demand last month. Imports climbed to 10.42-million barrels day (bpd) in April from 9.68-million bpd in March, according to Reuters calculations based on customs data for the first four months of 2020.

Furthermore, China’s overall exports data showed a rise against expectations of a sharp drop, though a big drop in total imports suggests any recovery is some way off as economies around the world fall into recession, meaning demand for fuels will likely remain subdued at best.

Tamas Vargas, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, added that “rising US petrol demand, falling Saudi exports, and the relatively stable stock markets” are also lending support. US petrol stocks fell for a second week as some US states eased lockdowns that had sharply hit traffic.

Saudi Arabia raised its official selling prices for June after cutting May exports to almost the lowest in a decade. 

However, a mismatch between demand and supply remained, despite a rebound from dire figures in the physical market.

US crude inventories were up for a 15th straight week last week, rising by 4.6-million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. That was less than analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, which suggested a 7.8-million-barrel rise, but the gain highlighted once again how much supply is being stored.

Distillate inventories also rose sharply.

“A shift in market sentiment was lifting prices earlier this week, but the physical overhang does not want to go away just yet,” Citi Research said.

Also capping prices were indications that Iraq, oil cartel Opec’s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia, has not yet informed customers of impending restrictions on its oil exports.

Opec and allied producers (Opec+) agreed to cut production from May 1 by about 10-million bpd to help support prices.

Reuters