SA assets signal investor angst

SA assets are signalling increasing investor anxiety about Wednesday’s election, with the fate of the rand and government bonds tied to the extent of the governing ANC’s expected majority and what that implies for policy.

President Cyril Ramaphosa needs a strong mandate to push through fiscal and policy reforms in the face of opposition from factions within his party. But while a convincing majority may give assets a brief boost, the difficulty of the road ahead is making investors wary.

“President Ramaphosa’s ANC is all but certain to win this week’s election, but we’re sceptical that this will provide impetus to his sluggish reform drive,’’ said John Ashbourne, a senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients. “The ruling party will, after all, remain sharply divided. We expect that progress will be slow.’’

Volatility measures leave no doubt that rand traders see the election as an immediate, two-way risk. One-week implied volatility for the rand against the dollar has climbed above longer-term measures for the first time since March, and is now higher than any other emerging-market currency including the beleaguered Turkish lira.