These are the currencies JPMorgan is betting will be recession-proof

Hong Kong — If a US or global recession is looming, it’s time to own the Swiss franc, Singapore dollar, US dollar and Japanese yen — and ditch emerging-market currencies, according to analysts from JPMorgan Chase.

“Recessions are when creditors get to ask for their money back,” analysts, including Paul Meggyesi, said on July 6. “Three of the top four currencies to own during a recession are those of countries that boast extremely strong external positions.”

The yen is the cheapest of the recessionary hedges, while the Singapore dollar is the least attractive, the team concluded. The US currency benefits because, as the world’s default funding currency, the rest of the world needs to buy back dollars when banks and companies deleverage during recessions, the JPMorgan strategists said. The greenback has already been outperforming in recent months as trade tension escalated.

For the record, the team said talk of a recession at this point is “premature”, but concluded it is “sensible” to review contingency plans amid the likelihood of a further escalation in trade tension.

Emerging-market currencies are a “clear standout” as particularly susceptible to slowdowns, depreciating on average by 17% over a two-year period straddling the start of a recession, JPMorgan said.