World trade politics and the WTO: What does the future hold?

By Siyabonga Hadebe

PRETORIA – International media last week reported that former Nigerian finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is in line to become the first African and first woman to lead the World Trade Organization (WTO). The reports further added that her rise to the top could be stunted by the United States. Apparently, Washington favours the appointment of South Korea’s trade minister Yoo Myung-hee.

For starters, the WTO is “the only global international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations.” At its heart are the WTO agreements, negotiated and signed by the bulk of the world’s trading nations and ratified in their parliaments, and these include the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS).

Fortunately for Okonjo-Iweala, the US opposition could have no bearing on the outcome since it has only one vote in the WTO unlike in the case of World Bank or IMF, where it has overbearing influence. But this is not the end of the story.

Besides the reality that the US rejection “could extend the selection process for some additional weeks or even longer,” the WTO could be headed towards an uncharted territory where one of the biggest and leading economies is likely to refuse to play ball. Some people believe that this imminent crisis could be avoided through the US presidential election, where recent polls show that the current incumbent Donald Trump could possibly lose to his opponent Joe Biden.