Eskom is producing the same amount of power it did 23 years ago

Figures from Statistics SA’s latest survey on electricity generated and available for distribution in SA show that Eskom was still deteriorating in August 2023.

In fact, Eskom scored a hat trick of own goals in August – electricity available to users declined by 2.7% compared to July 2023; electricity supply fell by 8.6% compared to August 2022; and electricity available for distribution in SA decreased by 9.1% in the eight months to end August compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

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The latest of the monthly surveys of the electricity sector also shows that private power producers are steadily growing and benefiting from Eskom’s failures.

While Eskom produced nearly 9% less electricity in August compared to a year ago, Stats SA notes that the total electricity supply decreased by only 6.4%. The difference between the two figures represents the growth of electricity supply by private producers.

Eskom’s share of total electricity supply in SA

According to Stats SA figures, total production of electricity available for distribution to consumers amounted to 17 980 gigawatt hours (Gwh) in August. Eskom distributed 15 376Gwh to consumers net of its own use of electricity in its power stations, imports and exports.

The deterioration at Eskom means the state power utility is currently producing approximately the same amount of electricity it produced 23 years ago.

In contrast, electricity produced by private power producers has been increasing fast since 2000.

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At the beginning of 2000, private electricity production amounted to a mere 725GWh. In August 2023, it has increased by 260% to 2 604GWh.

Electricity production by private entities is mostly by way of environmentally-friendly wind and solar plants, and has increased from less than 5% of the total electricity available in SA 20 years ago to the current 15%, according to the Stats SA figures.

Growth in private power supply

In reality, private electricity generation is probably a few percentage points higher than the official figures suggest because small residential rooftop systems and those installed by small businesses would not be counted by Stats SA.

The statisticians at Stats SA note that the monthly survey covers electricity undertakings and establishments conducting activities concerned with the generation and/or distribution of electricity – in other words, wherever electricity is produced and distributed through the national grid as well as that sold by a large-scale commercial wind or solar plants.

Stats SA confirms that electricity generated by big companies for their own use, such as corporate head offices with rooftop solar systems, as well as shopping centres, smaller businesses and residential properties with rooftop installations are not included in the figures.

Accurate estimates of how much power these smaller systems produce are difficult to come by. Estimates based on imports of solar panels point to installed capacity of 4GWh, compared to the total capacity of approximately 7GWh for large-scale solar and wind farms.

These smaller systems add quite a lot of electricity to the total, and reduce Eskom’s dominance by another few percentage points.

Stats SA’s next report will probably show that the trend is continuing, given the much longer hours of load shedding SA had in September and the number of houses and businesses sprouting solar panels on their roofs.