Small increases in food prices add up

Prices creep up a little bit every month. Small increases of only a fraction of a percent seem innocent. An increase of only 0.2% per month or 4% and 5% compared to a year ago does not sound too much to worry about.

As such, headline inflation was 0.6% in September 2023 and prices of all goods and services increased by 5.4% over the past year, according to the latest consumer price index data from Statistics SA.

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However, anyone who gets to push a shopping trolley down a supermarket aisle will have noticed that the prices of food and other grocery items have increased significantly compared to what we were paying not too long ago.

A jar of good instant coffee has increased from less than R80 to R129 in what seems like a couple of months.

Stats SA noted in its recent consumer price index report that food prices increased faster than the overall inflation rate of 5.4% in September 2023. Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks increased by 8.1% compared to September 2022.

Vegetables are more than 15% more expensive, while prices of milk, eggs and cheese have increased by nearly 9%. Sugar, sweets and desserts are nearly 18% more expensive than a year ago.

Listen/read: Egg industry estimates up to 18 months to recover 

One needs to look at food prices over a slightly longer term to understand the reality of expensive food and consumers’ struggle to afford household groceries.

Three years

Previous consumer price index reports show that food inflation suddenly increased during the last three years, from more subdued levels of around 5%. The most recent 8.1% increase in food prices comes on top of the increase of 11.9% in the year to September 2022, while food inflation was running at 11.4% in the year to September 2021.

The compounding effect of these high increases means that food is now nearly 35% more expensive than three years ago. A lot of products have increased by more than 50% over the period and a few have nearly doubled in price, according to the list of items surveyed by Stats SA.

The list of items that Stats SA surveys every month is available as an addendum to the monthly consumer price index report and includes prices for more than 200 items going back 15 years.

Largest price increases over three years (R)
Product	Size	Sep 2020	Sep 2023	Change
Instant noodles (e.g. 2-minute noodles)	73g	5.80	9.08	57%
Margarine spread (in a tub)	500g	24.80	38.08	54%
Ice cream	1.8 litre	49.79	76.12	53%
Broccoli	Each	19.43	29.50	52%
Sunflower oil (incl canola oil)	750ml	23.84	35.98	51%
Baby food – milk formula	900g	143.09	215.41	51%
Ham	500g	36.36	54.60	50%
Instant coffee	250g	37.60	56.30	50%
Biltong	Per kg	261.35	380.90	46%
Frozen potato chips	1kg	33.86	49.31	46%
Brown sugar	1 kg	19.62	28.42	45%
Cake flour	2.5 kg	29.95	42.73	43%
Chocolate slab	80g	14.65	20.70	41%
Pumpkin	Per kg	14.07	19.70	40%
Pasta (excl spaghetti, macaroni)	500g	18.24	25.53	40%
White sugar	2.5kg	43.62	61.05	40%
Hake – frozen	400g	63.79	89.24	40%
Potatoes	Per kg	13.52	18.90	40%
Ground coffee or coffee beans	250g	69.91	96.93	39%
Ready-mix flour	1kg	28.35	39.02	38%

Source: Compiled from Stats SA data

It is remarkable that prices of personal care items increased sharply. Hair relaxers nearly doubled in price, while toothpaste costs 55% more than three years ago. A toothbrush is also more expensive (63%) and soap powder and toilet paper are 50% more expensive.

Some food items increased by massive percentages, such as onions (79%), coffee creamer (58%), instant noodles (57%) and broccoli (52%).

And it is way more expensive to keep a cat than a few years ago. The price of cat food pellets increased by 63% to an average of R90 per 1.75kg. Dog owners are somewhat better off as dog pellets increased by only 47% over the last three years – and dogs are less fussy than cats at their food bowls.

Food

While the latest inflation report shows that the prices of some food categories increased sharply over the past year, it noted smaller increases in some.

Vegetables increased by 15.3%, but meat by only 3.8%. The price of fats and cooking oil decreased slightly after huge increases previously.

However, cooking oil is still 50% more expensive than it was three years ago, while meat is between 20% and 30% more expensive, depending on the type of meat and the specific cut.

Biggest price increases among food items (R)
Product	Size	Sep 2020	Sep 2023	Change
Corned beef	300g	26.19	35.90	37%
Beans – dried	500g	21.52	29.28	36%
Condensed milk	385g	24.95	33.93	36%
Cauliflower	Each	20.98	28.29	35%
Cheese spread	250g	36.22	48.37	34%
Mayonnaise	750g	31.09	41.41	33%
Salad dressing	340ml	27.14	35.88	32%
Maize-based food drink (e.g. mageu )	1 Litre	14.86	19.61	32%
Atchar	400g	33.59	44.23	32%
Feta cheese	400g	47.70	62.72	31%
Spaghetti	500g	14.99	19.68	31%
Fish fingers – frozen	400g	48.62	63.72	31%
Bread flour	2.5kg	35.73	46.61	30%
Fish (excl tuna) – tinned	400g	20.13	26.23	30%
Peanut butter	400g	31.68	41.11	30%
Chicken portions frozen – non IQF	Per kg	49.19	63.82	30%
Mixed vegetables – tinned	410g	17.26	22.38	30%
IQF chicken portions	2kg	71.42	92.16	29%
Gouda cheese	900g	121.22	156.42	29%
Baby food – cereal	250g	29.95	38.59	29%
Apples	Per kg	15.60	20.08	29%
Beef offal	Per kg	38.09	48.91	28%
Polony	1kg	42.50	54.43	28%
Low fat milk – long life	1 litre	15.29	19.57	28%
Beef brisket	Per kg	84.84	108.13	27%
Pork ribs	Per kg	78.70	99.77	27%
Chutney	470g	31.72	40.01	26%
Low fat milk – fresh	2 litre	28.75	36.25	26%
Hot cereals (incl instant porridge)	1kg	25.53	31.96	25%
Full cream milk – long life	1 litre	15.71	19.59	25%
Rusks	500g	39.30	49.00	25%
Potato crisps	125g	15.39	19.02	24%
Cheddar cheese	900g	121.34	149.95	24%
Macaroni	500g	15.01	18.53	23%
Brick margarine	500g	22.49	27.65	23%
Bacon	200g	33.28	40.87	23%
Loaf of brown bread	700g	13.84	16.96	23%
Beef T-bone	Per kg	103.59	126.90	23%
Frozen vegetables	1kg	38.13	46.68	22%
Loaf of white bread	700g	15.03	18.39	22%
Custard – prepared	1 litre	27.58	33.62	22%
Mutton/lamb neck	Per kg	121.23	147.44	22%
Sausage	Per kg	80.97	98.39	22%
Sweet biscuits	200g	20.46	24.83	21%
Beef chuck	Per kg	86.85	105.05	21%
Whiskey	750ml	200.60	242.28	21%
Flavoured yoghurt	1kg	33.35	40.26	21%
Red wine	750ml	63.74	76.93	21%
Chocolate bar	Each	11.21	13.49	20%
Fresh cream	250ml	25.54	30.69	20%
Mutton/lamb ofal	Per kg	51.07	61.36	20%
Cereals	500g	39.41	47.28	20%
Tuna – tinned	170g	20.41	24.32	19%
Full cream milk – fresh	2 litre	29.45	35.05	19%
Plain yoghurt	1kg	34.08	40.55	19%
Peanuts	150g	21.61	25.43	18%
Pears	Per kg	19.70	23.02	17%
Ice cream	2 litre	62.90	73.43	17%
Pork fillet	Per kg	93.12	108.28	16%
Bananas	Per kg	16.45	19.10	16%
Bread rolls	For 6	15.69	18.06	15%
Beef extract	120g	14.19	16.33	15%
Cucumber	Each	15.19	17.08	12%
Cabbage	Each	17.98	20.08	12%
Eggs	For 18	46.72	51.91	11%
Baked beans – tinned	410g	13.89	15.39	11%
Baking powder	200g	28.61	31.63	11%
Paw paw	Each	19.85	21.90	10%
Carrots	1kg	13.28	14.57	10%
Mutton/lamb loin chop	Per kg	176.81	193.72	10%
Stewing mutton/lamb	Per kg	127.86	139.98	9%
Mushrooms	250g	27.94	30.44	9%
Rice	2kg	39.64	42.49	7%
Beef mince	Per kg	96.34	103.07	7%
Lettuce	Each	15.74	16.67	6%
Mutton/lamb rib chop	Per kg	182.61	191.44	5%
Beer	330ml	15.25	15.88	4%
Chicken portions – fresh	Per kg	75.72	78.49	4%
Rooibos tea	200g	45.18	46.70	3%
Prepared salads	Per kg	69.32	71.05	2%
Whole chicken – fresh	Per kg	60.68	61.66	2%
Beef sirloin	Per kg	161.27	163.10	1%
Beef fillet	Per kg	248.15	248.28	0%
Green/red/yellow pepper	Per kg	53.21	53.23	0%
Beef rump steak	Per kg	160.49	158.66	-1%
Mutton/lamb leg	Per kg	167.45	164.92	-2%
Eggs	For 6	20.95	20.51	-2%
Sweet potatoes	Per kg	22.09	21.51	-3%
Pork chops	Per kg	93.72	90.01	-4%
Beetroot	1kg	14.61	13.93	-5%
Stewing beef	Per kg	102.97	95.54	-7%
Oranges	Per kg	19.12	17.17	-10%
Avocados	Each	11.82	10.40	-12%
Rice	1kg	32.09	26.89	-16%
Pineapple	Each	18.47	15.25	-17%

Source: Compiled from Stats SA data

The prices of some food items are at the same levels as three years ago, according to the Stats SA data. This includes beef fillet (R248 per kg), whole fresh chicken (R62 per kg) and, apparently, a tray of six eggs (R21).

The last figure looks suspect, as Stats SA’s survey recorded an increase of 11% in the price of a tray of 18 eggs over the same period.

The prices of chicken and eggs are currently increasing due to concern over shortages.

Read:
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Stats SA noted in a discussion of the inflation rate that its data collectors had already noted some upward movement in the prices of poultry-related products during September as producers started to cull birds in response to the outbreak of avian flu.

“Examples include fresh whole chicken (up 2.2%), fresh chicken portions (up 2.2%) and frozen chicken portions (up 1.9%). Egg prices registered a monthly increase of 0.3% following a decline of 0.4% in August,” it says.

“Prices for poultry related products deserve a close watch in the coming months to gauge the impact of the avian flu outbreak. The October CPI, due for release on 22 November, will provide the next update.”

Where the pressures are coming from

Koketso Mano, senior economist at FNB, said in a response to the latest inflation figures that “consumer inflation lifts off on fuel price pressures”, pointing to the steep increase in fuel prices for September.

Read: Wars, trade bans and climate change turn food into politics

He also noted the high level of food inflation. “Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation tilted upwards to 8.1% year-on-year, from 8.0% previously. Meat, beverages and cereals explained 75% of the monthly pressure, and only vegetables contributed negatively,” he says.

He expects inflation to increase further. “Headline inflation will lift to 5.6% in October. Headline inflation will experience further upward monthly pressure from fuel prices following the over R1 per litre lift in petrol and near R2 per litre lift in diesel prices.

“Furthermore, the avian flu outbreak that has primarily affected the supply of eggs and will likely spill over to chicken should keep food inflation elevated. Unfortunately, an undervalued rand should continue to be a source of upward pressure to broader imported inflation,” says Mano.

Five years

Looking at food prices over five years is even more depressing, unless your salary increased by more than the general inflation rate since your September 2018 pay cheque.

The overall inflation rate was only 3% to 4% in the first few years, but accelerated to 5% and then to 7.5% by 2022. Thus, the cost of the total consumer basket increased by 28% since 2018.

Food inflation was higher than the general inflation rate in four of the five years with the result that the food items in the inflation basket cost 40% more than in 2018.

A last look at Stats SA’s price data shows that a litre of milk cost R14.70 in 2018, T-bone steak sold for R103 per kg and an average red wine was R65 per bottle. Cat food was just over R55 a bag.

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