South Africa could experience load shedding for the next decade – CSIR

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This transcript is a translation from the original interview, which was conducted in Afrikaans and aired on RSG Geldsake, here.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: Well, today we have had [continuous] Stage 6 load shedding handed to us by Eskom. In the short- or even the medium term it is unlikely that a huge number of renewable energy plants will be added to Eskom’s grid. The reason is that Eskom’s transmission network simply doesn’t have the capacity to accommodate electricity from these plants. That is according to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, the CSIR, which says that South Africa could experience load shedding for the next decade.

Read:
Just find the wretched money for the diesel!
Stage 6 load shedding extended throughout the day

Monique le Roux, a senior researcher at the CSIR, is on the line. Monique, welcome to the programme. Ten years of load shedding? Many politicians have been predicting just a year or two, and they have been saying this ever since 2012. Why do you think load shedding will persist for another 10 years?

MONIQUE LE ROUX: Good afternoon, Ryk. Thank you very much for having me on the programme. Historically South Africa’s electricity network was developed for electricity generation to take place in a centralised area, such as at the big coal power stations in Mpumalanga, for instance. Eskom built huge transmission lines from there to the areas where electricity is consumed, such as the large centres in Gauteng and Durban.

If you look at other provinces like the Western Cape and the Eastern Cape, Eskom erected smaller transmission lines there because the philosophy at that stage was ‘we just want to send the load there, we don’t want to feed new generation into that network’.

If you look at, for example, the Western Cape and Eastern Cape, the peak load in those areas is only between 2 000MW and 3 000MW, which is around the amount of generation capacity we can feed into the network there and be linked up. Unfortunately that is the number of RDPs together with Koeberg and other Eskom storage capacities…… 2:54  connected and, as many would know, we are sitting with a situation where no further generation capacity can be connected to the Eastern Cape, Western Cape or Northern Cape.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: If I may interrupt, [that means] Eskom has a transmission network that extends across the entire country, but it has been so designed that it cannot take up generation from the renewable energy projects in those areas. It hasn’t been designed to do so. What would need to happen for it to take up that electricity, which is so urgently needed?

MONIQUE LE ROUX: That’s quite right. What many people do not understand is that it’s not as simple as building new solar and wind capacity, because in areas with the wind and solar resources the network is not there. It unfortunately simply doesn’t exist.

To develop a good wind farm and make it financially viable, there has to be a good wind resource, a plentiful supply of wind for good capacity on the wind farm. That unfortunately only exists along the coastal areas, as well as in the Northern Cape. But all the available capacity in the Northern Cape has already been connected. So that means that Eskom will have to build additional huge infrastructure from the north, from the …….4:31 where most high-intensity consumers are generally situated in the northern parts of the country, so this electricity can be fed from the south to the north, to put it like that.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: I have regularly chatted with Eskom and other energy experts about the electricity problems being experienced. From those discussion it was evident that the focus was always on the power stations giving problems: Medupi and Kusile’s structural problems, and the old power stations that are always breaking down and not being properly maintained. This is the first time that I am hearing of the extent of these problems with the transmission network. According to you, in the past 10 years has Eskom invested or put any money into its transmission network to expand the capacity, allowing electricity from these projects to enter the grid?

MONIQUE LE ROUX: Unfortunately that is somewhat of a sore point, both for Eskom and government. If we look at the statistics over the past five years,

since 2018 Eskom has added only a 700km new transmission line. According to its transmission development plan, for the necessary transmission infrastructure to be installed to unlock new capacity, they need 14 000km of new infrastructure.

So we can see only 700km when the need is for 14 000km.

So there needs to be huge will, a huge effort put into getting these new transmission lines built and unlocking capacity. Eskom itself has spoken of these massive infrastructure programmes and builds in particular – and we are working daily with these new development projects. The timeline I am looking at is 10 years or more.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: I assume it will cost a huge amount of money to build – over and above the time it will take. Of course, Eskom is not rolling in money. Is your expectation then load shedding for another 10 years?

MONIQUE LE ROUX: We would probably not put that in print, but that is certainly one of the scenarios we are looking at. One has to look at major developments to be able to solve the problem. We are currently sitting with 6 000MW that cannot be provided. If we consider Koeberg, that alone provides 2 000MW. To merely solve the current problem we basically need three new Koeberg nuclear stations, or you need an incredible number of wind farms which can generate electricity at the right times of day. If you look at sun and wind profiles, you won’t always have the electricity at peak times. Solar power in the middle of the day is a good profile, but the capacity cannot be totally relied upon to provide customers with the power.

To come back to your question about the costs involved, in its development programme presentation last year Eskom said that between 2023 and 2027 alone they would need R72 billion for transmission development only, and this includes a fairly small portion of the total amount they need for the development programme over the next 10 years.

RYK VAN NIEKERK: I’ll try to get someone from Eskom on the programme tomorrow evening so we can hear that side of the story as well. This is highly disturbing to hear.

Monique, thank you for your time this evening. That was Monique Le Roux, a senior researcher at the CSIR.