Stage 6 continuous load shedding to kickoff the week

Just after 10:30pm on Sunday 19 February Eskom announced stage 6 load shedding until further notice and warned of “further changes on the stages of load shedding at short notice.”

This follows the breakdown of eight generating units on Sunday afternoon, which brought the total generating capacity unavailable to breakdowns to 21 243 MW, compared to 19 385MW around at around 1pm the same afternoon.

Around 3 566 MW was unavailable due to planned maintenance.

Eskom has a total capacity of around 48 000 MW.

The utility also warned: “Given the high number of breakdowns, there is a possibility of further changes on the stages of load shedding at short notice.”

Although its protocol provides for up to stage 8 load shedding, Eskom has never implemented higher than stage six.

Basically you're telling us that there's a possibility of stage 7/8 as predicted.

— Mzwandile (@Zwaii_ME) February 19, 2023

In its late-night statement Eskom said: “Since Sunday afternoon a generating unit each at Arnot, Hendrina, Lethabo and Majuba, as well as two units at Camden Power Station have suffered breakdowns and taken offline for repairs. Further, two generating units at the Lethabo Power Station were shut down due to coal constraints as the New Vaal Mine that is supplying the station has been unable to deliver the expected amount of coal during the past week because of the heavy rains.

“The three running units are operating at minimum capacity and are at risk of shutdown should the coal supply constraints not be resolved.”

It promised a further update “as soon as any significant changes occur.”

This is a huge setback for Eskom’s effort to achieve 60% plant availability by the end of March, an interim target set by government on the way to improve availability of the struggling generation fleet to 75%.

The average so far for 2023 is a mere 52.22%, up from a low of 48.51% in the last week of 2022 when a large amount of planned maintenance was being done. In the week ended 12 February it had improved to 55.09%.

Outgoing CEO Andre de Ruyter has already indicated that the target won’t be met at the end of March.

Ordinary South Africans responded with frustration to the announcement on Twitter, saying traffic is going to be impossible due to load shedding on Monday morning, and warning that the impact of load shedding may be reflected at the ballot station in the upcoming elections in 2024.